And so the Adobe Apple War drags on...

I'm going to put on my Nostradamus head and make a prediction. Apple will lose all market share and Iphone smartphone dominance by 2012, as people will migrate towards Google Android devices that support "the full web". The tech war between Apple and Adobe will be finally over.

The Ipad will fall aside in popularity like the Macbook Air as a nice bit of kit that opened up the market for better more open usable devices that fulfil real people's needs and desires for mobile computing, and not be another commercial model designed for the "proles" by Apple to line their own pockets.


Why do I think this? Well the tech journalists are usually a step behind us techies, and being an intermediary between us "Geeks" and the mass populace, they trundle in like tanks on the battlefield. I suppose in this ongoing war, us developers, early-adopters etc are the scouts, where the public are the infantry. The dozens of current articles by tech journalists about the spat between Apple and Adobe is starting to sink in with them - true there's a lot of rubbish journalism going on too, about how HMTL 5 will replace Flash (erm no, perhaps for video playback but thats it - Flash is sooo much more than just a YouTube video player!). The fact is most tech journalists being "media people" all have a Mac bias because their peers use them. The rest of us make other decisions with our hardware based on cost and performance, not style - its all about CONTENT.

However the tide of the battle is turning, as even these "Mac Fanboys" are slowly starting to see through the bullshit from Steve Jobs and his keynote speeches and see the real picture. Perhaps its their Itunes account statements as they realise how much Apple gets from them as they download the latest apps they'll never use again in a months time. Perhaps its because its the current tech media popular subject that gets people writing on an otherwise dull tech landscape.

Of course these comparisons to a war makes Jobs and the CEO of Adobe the Generals pushing the buttons and rallying the troops, but like a real war, well crafted political agendas and propaganda can fuel the cause and motivate people, but after a couple of years those troops will soon realise the cost of not seeing the bigger picture.

In this case its the amount of money they pay to Apple for content & applications, so while the "troops" and fanboys chew over the long-term reality of their sheep like movements, a lack of choice, censorship and big costs, the more enlightened of us are already three steps ahead through bitter experience or analytical projection and theories of how it will "play out" - and using other free alternatives.

On the free web.